population

Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate

Published

3 months ago

April 10, 2023

Pallavi Rao

Graphics/Design:

Bhabna Banerjee

A line chart tracing the world's falling fertility rates to 2.3 in 2020 along with a heatmap of countries with higher (darker) or lower (lighter) fertility rates

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Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate

At the dawn of the 19th century, the world population hit a big milestone: 1 billion people.

Over the next 220 years, the number grew to eight times that, or the 8 billion people who live on the planet today, with half of the growth occurring since 1975.

This continuous climb in global population has been possible thanks to advancements in healthcare and nutrition. However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down—and may even stop entirely by 2100—because of falling fertility rates.

What does that mean for modern nation states conditioned to expect a constant influx of new citizens and labor to power their economies? And how can those changing economies adapt to a shrinking population?

To understand that, we need to first untangle fertility rates, and why they’re falling.

Explained: Fertility and Replacement Rates

The total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman over a lifetime. This measurement makes two key assumptions, however:

The woman will live to the end of her childbearing years
The woman will bear children according to the age-specific fertility rates currently observed

Both assumptions add some uncertainty to future fertility rate projections. However, decades of past data collected by the World Bank help show some overall trends around the world, and in many countries.

ℹ️ The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) “measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group,” according to the UN.

The world fertility rate (expressed as the number of children per woman) has been falling steadily since the 1970s.

In 2020, the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.3, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which allows for one generation to replace itself. This is down more than two times from 4.7 in 1960.

But the world’s average hides the vast disparities between the fertility rate of countries. We dive into the differences below.

Which Country has the Highest Fertility Rate?

According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold. In the table below, countries are ranked from the highest to lowest average births per woman in 2020.

Rank	Country Name	1960	1975	1990	2005	2020
1	Niger	7.53	7.54	7.81	7.62	6.89
2	Somalia	7.25	7.03	7.44	7.48	6.42
3	Chad	6.25	6.88	7.22	7.13	6.35
4	Dem. Rep. of Congo	6.08	6.42	6.70	6.60	6.21
5	Mali	7.00	7.24	7.25	6.72	6.04
6	Central African Republic	5.81	5.89	6.05	5.85	5.99
7	Angola	6.71	7.49	7.27	6.46	5.37
8	Nigeria	6.36	6.77	6.46	6.07	5.31
9	Burundi	7.00	7.24	7.37	6.71	5.18
10	Benin	6.28	6.85	6.73	5.68	5.05
11	Burkina Faso	6.25	6.91	7.01	6.18	4.87
12	Tanzania	6.73	7.00	6.20	5.61	4.80
13	Gambia	6.25	6.41	6.22	5.72	4.78
14	Afghanistan	7.28	7.54	7.57	6.91	4.75
15	Mozambique	6.32	6.69	6.22	5.61	4.71
16	Uganda	6.94	7.23	7.04	6.57	4.69
17	Cameroon	5.65	6.39	6.39	5.41	4.54
18	South Sudan	6.72	6.92	7.99	6.17	4.54
19	Sudan	6.65	6.93	6.17	5.04	4.54
20	Guinea	6.11	6.37	6.63	5.70	4.49
21	Cote d'Ivoire	7.69	7.91	6.73	5.46	4.47
22	Mauritania	6.35	6.68	6.06	5.19	4.46
23	Senegal	7.00	7.25	6.40	5.19	4.45
24	Zambia	7.12	7.39	6.53	5.71	4.38
25	Equatorial Guinea	5.65	5.79	5.99	5.56	4.35
26	Togo	6.72	7.15	6.13	5.07	4.32
27	Ethiopia	6.88	7.14	7.24	5.97	4.24
28	Rep. of Congo	6.09	6.36	5.21	4.66	4.23
29	Liberia	6.39	6.74	6.37	5.52	4.17
30	Guinea-Bissau	5.92	6.15	6.51	5.45	4.09
31	Sierra Leone	6.18	6.55	6.57	5.81	4.08
32	Comoros	6.79	7.12	6.50	5.03	4.05
33	Solomon Islands	6.97	7.07	5.66	4.48	4.04
34	Samoa	7.65	6.68	4.93	4.37	4.00
35	Malawi	7.03	7.40	6.81	5.91	4.00
36	Eritrea	6.48	6.59	6.34	4.93	3.93
37	Madagascar	7.30	7.10	6.16	5.10	3.92
38	Sao Tome & Principe	6.24	6.53	5.83	4.96	3.89
39	Yemen	7.94	8.40	8.61	5.58	3.89
40	Rwanda	8.19	8.22	6.87	5.44	3.87
41	Vanuatu	6.86	6.09	5.03	4.16	3.78
42	Ghana	6.85	6.77	5.71	4.54	3.62
43	West Bank & Gaza	NA	NA	6.78	4.84	3.57
44	Pakistan	6.80	6.81	6.36	4.64	3.56
45	Iraq	5.30	6.88	5.88	4.48	3.55
46	Gabon	4.42	5.39	5.46	4.21	3.55
47	Zimbabwe	7.22	6.98	4.87	3.67	3.55
48	Kenya	7.63	7.88	6.13	4.78	3.40
49	Namibia	6.21	6.54	5.32	3.56	3.35
50	Kiribati	6.55	5.03	4.64	3.80	3.33
51	Papua New Guinea	6.02	6.07	5.18	4.22	3.27
52	Tonga	6.89	5.43	4.64	4.18	3.27
53	Timor-Leste	6.32	5.19	5.81	5.71	3.25
54	Tajikistan	6.55	6.60	5.34	3.44	3.24
55	Tuvalu	4.78	3.50	3.91	3.63	3.19
56	Kazakhstan	4.53	3.39	2.72	2.22	3.13
57	Lesotho	5.82	5.90	4.76	3.44	3.05
58	Kyrgyzstan	5.38	4.66	3.63	2.50	3.00
59	Egypt	6.79	5.80	4.48	3.15	2.96
60	Algeria	7.50	7.37	4.56	2.56	2.94
61	Israel	3.87	3.55	2.82	2.84	2.90
62	Mongolia	6.83	7.13	4.23	2.03	2.90
63	Uzbekistan	6.61	5.89	4.07	2.36	2.90
64	Eswatini	6.75	6.75	5.25	3.68	2.89
65	Jordan	7.67	7.89	5.48	3.78	2.87
66	Haiti	6.21	5.69	5.48	3.83	2.87
67	Djibouti	6.83	6.77	5.98	3.99	2.85
68	Botswana	6.63	6.58	4.49	3.08	2.84
69	Syria	7.49	7.47	5.38	3.81	2.80
70	Philippines	7.15	5.60	4.35	3.49	2.78
71	Micronesia	6.69	6.68	4.96	3.60	2.75
72	Turkmenistan	6.59	5.90	4.24	2.66	2.70
73	Oman	7.25	7.75	6.61	3.05	2.69
74	Bolivia	6.36	5.79	4.89	3.56	2.65
75	Guam	5.91	3.91	3.05	2.76	2.59
76	Lao	6.29	6.29	6.08	3.67	2.54
77	Libya	7.37	7.96	4.97	2.77	2.51
78	Paraguay	6.50	5.21	4.55	3.04	2.50
79	Fiji	6.46	4.10	3.41	2.89	2.50
80	Guatemala	6.96	6.41	5.48	3.97	2.48
81	Saudi Arabia	7.63	7.37	5.83	3.24	2.47
82	Guyana	6.37	4.50	3.07	2.84	2.42
83	South Africa	6.16	5.19	3.72	2.51	2.40
84	Honduras	7.46	6.86	5.29	3.55	2.39
85	Cambodia	6.25	4.10	5.64	3.24	2.38
86	Suriname	6.61	4.73	3.27	2.75	2.37
87	Morocco	7.04	6.27	4.02	2.57	2.35
88	Nicaragua	7.16	6.50	4.60	2.77	2.35
89	Panama	5.84	4.42	3.10	2.67	2.34
90	Dominican Republic	7.56	5.24	3.41	2.61	2.30
91	Faroe Islands	NA	2.90	2.80	2.60	2.30
92	World	4.70	4.08	3.31	2.60	2.30
93	Seychelles	NA	NA	NA	2.20	2.29
94	Venezuela, RB	6.36	4.69	3.45	2.63	2.23
95	Peru	6.94	5.71	3.91	2.69	2.22
96	Indonesia	5.55	5.04	3.10	2.43	2.19
97	Myanmar	5.98	5.29	3.54	2.55	2.17
98	Kuwait	7.16	6.09	3.32	2.66	2.14
99	Tunisia	6.94	6.03	3.47	1.98	2.11
100	Lebanon	5.82	4.56	3.30	2.20	2.10
101	Nepal	6.03	5.75	5.21	3.14	2.06
102	Ecuador	6.72	5.43	3.74	2.80	2.05
103	India	5.92	5.20	4.05	2.96	2.05
104	New Caledonia	6.28	3.70	3.18	2.20	2.04
105	Virgin Islands	5.45	3.63	2.99	2.24	2.03
106	Grenada	6.74	4.02	3.49	2.34	2.02
107	Greenland	NA	2.35	2.44	2.38	2.02
108	Bangladesh	6.78	6.74	4.48	2.81	2.00
109	Sri Lanka	5.47	3.79	2.52	2.28	2.00
110	Belize	6.50	6.28	4.70	3.13	2.00
111	Georgia	2.94	2.53	2.31	1.61	1.97
112	Vietnam	6.28	5.64	3.60	1.96	1.96
113	Turkiye	6.38	5.07	3.13	2.22	1.92
114	Argentina	3.08	3.30	3.03	2.43	1.91
115	Cabo Verde	6.89	6.77	5.39	2.93	1.91
116	Mexico	6.76	5.79	3.45	2.50	1.91
117	Gibraltar	3.01	2.62	2.44	1.70	1.86
118	Bahrain	7.15	5.62	3.76	2.62	1.83
119	France	2.85	2.09	1.77	1.94	1.83
120	El Salvador	6.63	5.68	3.95	2.46	1.82
121	Malaysia	6.41	4.52	3.37	2.33	1.82
122	North Korea	3.57	3.05	2.35	1.96	1.82
123	Qatar	6.65	6.10	4.18	2.58	1.82
124	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	7.29	4.98	2.83	2.07	1.81
125	Brunei Darussalam	6.84	4.99	3.29	2.02	1.80
126	Moldova	3.33	2.53	2.39	1.53	1.77
127	Montenegro	3.50	2.40	1.94	1.69	1.75
128	Colombia	6.74	4.40	3.08	2.26	1.74
129	Iceland	4.29	2.65	2.30	2.05	1.72
130	Maldives	6.80	7.19	6.09	2.24	1.71
131	Czechia	2.09	2.43	1.90	1.29	1.71
132	Iran	7.30	6.01	4.86	1.78	1.71
133	French Polynesia	5.89	4.71	3.44	2.19	1.71
134	Azerbaijan	5.88	4.18	2.74	2.00	1.70
135	Denmark	2.57	1.92	1.67	1.80	1.67
136	Sweden	2.17	1.77	2.13	1.77	1.66
137	Brazil	6.06	4.42	2.91	1.97	1.65
138	U.S.	3.65	1.77	2.08	2.06	1.64
139	Trinidad and Tobago	5.35	3.24	2.38	1.68	1.63
140	Ireland	3.78	3.37	2.11	1.86	1.63
141	Barbados	4.33	2.39	1.74	1.79	1.63
142	New Zealand	4.24	2.33	2.18	1.97	1.61
143	Curacao	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.60
144	Romania	2.34	2.59	1.83	1.40	1.60
145	Slovenia	2.19	2.18	1.46	1.26	1.60
146	Australia	3.45	2.15	1.90	1.81	1.58
147	Estonia	1.98	2.04	2.05	1.52	1.58
148	Armenia	4.79	2.96	2.71	1.54	1.58
149	Slovak Republic	3.04	2.55	2.09	1.27	1.57
150	Antigua and Barbuda	4.60	2.77	2.25	1.83	1.57
151	Isle of Man	2.88	2.05	1.92	1.85	1.57
152	Bulgaria	2.31	2.23	1.82	1.37	1.56
153	United Kingdom	2.69	1.81	1.83	1.76	1.56
154	Hungary	2.02	2.35	1.87	1.31	1.56
155	Costa Rica	6.71	3.80	3.21	2.04	1.56
156	Belgium	2.54	1.74	1.62	1.76	1.55
157	Latvia	1.94	1.96	2.02	1.39	1.55
158	Netherlands	3.12	1.66	1.62	1.71	1.55
159	Chile	4.70	3.18	2.58	1.80	1.54
160	Germany	2.37	1.45	1.45	1.34	1.53
161	Kosovo	6.36	5.25	3.65	2.61	1.53
162	Russia	2.52	1.98	1.89	1.29	1.51
163	Cuba	4.13	2.85	1.80	1.47	1.50
164	Croatia	2.23	1.96	1.63	1.50	1.48
165	Lithuania	2.56	2.18	2.03	1.29	1.48
166	Norway	2.85	1.98	1.93	1.84	1.48
167	Serbia	NA	NA	NA	1.45	1.48
168	Uruguay	2.83	3.02	2.43	2.10	1.48
169	U.A.E	6.72	6.26	4.54	2.20	1.46
170	Switzerland	2.44	1.61	1.58	1.42	1.46
171	Austria	2.69	1.83	1.46	1.41	1.44
172	Mauritius	6.17	3.20	2.32	1.88	1.44
173	Bhutan	6.70	6.62	5.60	2.80	1.43
174	St. Lucia	6.97	5.46	3.40	1.68	1.41
175	Albania	6.46	4.52	2.90	1.80	1.40
176	Canada	3.81	1.82	1.83	1.57	1.40
177	Portugal	3.16	2.75	1.56	1.41	1.40
178	Bahamas	4.82	3.26	2.53	2.05	1.39
179	Belarus	2.67	2.17	1.91	1.25	1.38
180	Poland	2.98	2.27	2.06	1.24	1.38
181	Finland	2.72	1.68	1.78	1.80	1.37
182	Luxembourg	2.29	1.55	1.60	1.63	1.37
183	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3.91	2.36	1.79	1.20	1.36
184	Jamaica	5.58	4.50	2.85	2.06	1.36
185	Thailand	6.25	4.40	2.09	1.59	1.34
186	Greece	2.23	2.33	1.39	1.34	1.34
187	Japan	2.00	1.91	1.54	1.26	1.34
188	Cyprus	3.51	2.11	2.41	1.48	1.33
189	Aruba	4.82	2.51	2.30	1.78	1.33
190	Bermuda	NA	NA	NA	1.76	1.30
191	North Macedonia	3.97	2.59	2.19	1.50	1.30
192	China	4.45	3.57	2.51	1.62	1.28
193	Italy	2.40	2.17	1.33	1.34	1.24
194	Spain	2.86	2.77	1.36	1.33	1.23
195	Ukraine	2.24	2.02	1.85	1.21	1.22
196	Malta	3.62	2.27	2.02	1.38	1.13
197	Singapore	5.76	2.07	1.83	1.26	1.10
198	Macao SAR, China	4.93	1.60	1.74	0.83	1.07
199	British Virgin Islands	5.16	3.36	1.59	1.34	0.98
200	Puerto Rico	4.80	2.77	2.38	1.77	0.90
201	Hong Kong	5.07	2.67	1.27	0.96	0.87
202	South Korea	5.95	3.43	1.57	1.09	0.84

The African country of Niger currently has the highest fertility rate, at 6.9, which means on average, a woman in Niger will have seven children in her lifetime.

With the exception of Afghanistan (14th), all of the top 30 countries are found on the African continent. In fact, it’s estimated that Africa will add 2.5 billion new people by 2100, while most continents will actually flatline in terms of population growth.

At the bottom of the rankings, the country with the lowest fertility rate is South Korea, at 0.84.

Interestingly, many of the current most populous countries of the world—including China, India, and the U.S.—are all below replacement levels of fertility, with parts of Europe and North America having had persistently low fertility levels since the 1970s.

However, even the countries that currently have high fertility rates have seen a steep decline over the last 60 years. Why?

Why are Fertility Rates Falling All Over The World?

Declining fertility rates are a consequence of a confluence of many related factors, including (but not limited to):

Better access to contraception
Improving opportunities for women, outside of childbearing
Robust healthcare that lowers mortality rates of children

In the past, a larger number of children meant more chances of some making it to adulthood since infant mortality was so high. Women were also restricted to childbearing and rearing, and lacked access to contraception which led to increased—and sometimes unwanted—pregnancies.

Declining fertility rates are thus a triumph of improved socioeconomic development for many countries.

Consequences of Declining Fertility Rates

Although there are obvious issues with our large global population today, a different set of issues arise when fertility rates fall below replacement levels.

Dropping fertility rates can lead to shrinking populations and a higher ratio of the elderly to working adults—which will have unwanted economic consequences like increased healthcare costs and a reduced tax base.

Short-term solutions like immigration can help until populations are shrinking in every country. Longer-term solutions—reducing the cost of raising a child, and providing better support for families with children—are common strategies deployed to ward off demographic disaster.

The current crop of humanity has never had to contend with shrinking populations on a global scale. How will this reshape human livelihoods, priorities and expectations from life? We might soon find out.

Source: The World Bank.

Data note: The World Bank uses a number of sources to aggregate their data including the UN population division, Eurostat, and several national statistics programs. Data for some years is missing and has been marked as “NA.” Please visit their website for more information.

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Demographics

Visualizing the Changing World Population, by Country

These charts highlight the changing world population between 2022 and 2050, showing which countries are growing—and shrinking—the fastest.

Creator Program

Published

6 months ago

January 10, 2023

Freny Fernandes

Top 50 countries with largest population in 2050

Visualizing the Changing World Population, by Country

On average, there are 250 babies born every minute around the world. This adds up to over 130 million new human beings entering the world every year.

Then it’s no surprise that the world’s population, which now stands at a whopping 8 billion, has more than tripled since the mid-20th century.

This graphic by Truman Du uses December 2022 population data from the UN and summaries from the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) to show the unequal rise and fall of the world’s population by 2050.

Let’s take a closer look at some of these population trends.

Most Populous Countries: 2022 vs. 2050

The Asian countries of India and China have topped the rankings of the world’s most populous countries for hundreds of years.

China currently holds the number one spot on this list. But the population of India is expected to surpass that of China’s by later this year, eventually reaching a total of 1.67 billion in 2050.

Rank	Most Populous Countries (2022)	Population (2022)	Most Populous Countries (2050)	Population (2050)
1	China	1.43B	India	1.67B
2	India	1.42B	China	1.32B
3	United States of America	338M	United States of America	375M
4	Indonesia	276M	Nigeria	375M
5	Pakistan	236M	Pakistan	366M
6	Nigeria	219M	Indonesia	317M

The United States, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Indonesia are the next most populous countries in 2022, and they are expected to hold onto these spots until 2050. However, they have a long way to go before catching up with the top two, as their combined population doesn’t add up to half that of India and China’s total.

Interestingly, it is estimated that Nigeria’s population will shoot up to 375 million by 2050, almost matching the population of the United States. In 2022, the African country’s population was just around 219 million. This expected spike is largely due to a high birth rate and booming economy, and the resultant rural-to-urban migration.

Countries with Declining Populations

While many countries will be seeing their populations boom over the next three decades, other nations such as China are expected to experience the opposite.

Country	Population (2022)	Population (2050F)
China	1.425 billion	1.316 billion
Japan	123.9 million	104.1 million
Russian Federation	144.7 million	133.4 million
Italy	59.0 million	52.4 million
Republic of Korea	51.8 million	45.9 million
Germany	83.4 million	79.1 million
Thailand	71.7 million	68.1 million
Spain	47.6 million	44.3 million

Several countries in the world are expected to see their populations decline over the next 30 years. And the main reason for this: extremely low birth rates.

South Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate, is expected to see a sharp decline of almost 12% in its population as it falls to 46 million by 2050.

Changing world population trends like this can pose challenges for economies around the world, such as labor shortages, aging populations, and an increasing financial burden on younger generations.