Markets
These Global Cities Show the Highest Real Estate Bubble Risk
These Global Cities Show the Highest Real Estate Bubble Risk
Housing bubbles are a tricky phenomenon. As a market gathers steam and prices increase, it remains a matter of debate whether that market is overvalued and flooded with speculation, or it’s simply experiencing robust demand.
Of course, once a bubble bursts, it’s all obvious in hindsight.
One common red flag is when prices decouple from local incomes and rents. As well, imbalances in the real economy, such as excessive construction activity and lending can signal a bubble in the making.
The map above, based on data from the Real Estate Bubble Index by UBS, examines 25 global cities, scoring them based on their bubble risk.
Overinflated Markets
In the 2022 edition of the Real Estate Bubble Index, nine of the cities covered were classified as having extreme bubble risk (1.5 or higher score).
Rank | Risk Category | City | Bubble Index Score |
---|---|---|---|
#1 | 🔴 | 🇨🇦 Toronto | 2.24 |
#2 | 🔴 | 🇩🇪 Frankfurt | 2.21 |
#3 | 🔴 | 🇨🇭 Zurich | 1.81 |
#4 | 🔴 | 🇩🇪 Munich | 1.80 |
#5 | 🔴 | 🇭🇰 Hong Kong | 1.71 |
#6 | 🔴 | 🇨🇦 Vancouver | 1.70 |
#7 | 🔴 | 🇳🇱 Amsterdam | 1.62 |
#8 | 🔴 | 🇮🇱 Tel Aviv | 1.59 |
#9 | 🔴 | 🇯🇵 Tokyo | 1.56 |
#10 | 🟠 | 🇺🇸 Miami | 1.39 |
#11 | 🟠 | 🇺🇸 Los Angeles | 1.31 |
#12 | 🟠 | 🇸🇪 Stockholm | 1.22 |
#13 | 🟠 | 🇫🇷 Paris | 1.21 |
#14 | 🟠 | 🇦🇺 Sydney | 1.19 |
#15 | 🟠 | 🇨🇭 Geneva | 1.14 |
#16 | 🟠 | 🇬🇧 London | 1.08 |
#17 | 🟠 | 🇺🇸 San Francisco | 0.78 |
#18 | 🟠 | 🇺🇸 Boston | 0.75 |
#19 | 🟠 | 🇪🇸 Madrid | 0.59 |
#20 | 🟠 | 🇺🇸 New York | 0.57 |
#21 | 🟠 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | 0.50 |
#22 | 🟢 | 🇮🇹 Milan | 0.34 |
#23 | 🟢 | 🇧🇷 Sao Paulo | 0.20 |
#24 | 🟢 | 🇦🇪 Dubai | 0.16 |
#25 | 🟢 | 🇵🇱 Warsaw | 0.15 |
Canada’s largest city finds itself at the top of a ranking no city wants to end up on. Toronto’s home prices have been rising steadily for years now, and many, including UBS, believe that the city is now firmly in bubble territory.
Vancouver also finds itself in a similar position. Both Canadian cities have a high quality of life and have thriving tech industries.
Notably, none of the U.S. cities analyzed find themselves in the most extreme bubble risk category. The closest scoring U.S. city was Miami, which sits firmly in overvalued territory (0.5-1.5 range) with a score of 1.39.
Examining the Trends
In recent years, low interest rates helped push home prices and incomes further apart.
For cities in the bubble risk zone, prices have climbed by an average of 60% in inflation-adjusted terms over the past decade, while rents and real incomes increased by just 12%. And, while COVID-19 briefly put a dent in urban demand, rents in the cities analyzed rose at around the same pace as pre-pandemic times.
As a result, all but three of the cities saw positive price growth over the past year from a nominal price perspective:
U.S. cities occupy a number of spots at the top of this chart. Miami, in particular, is seeing strong internal migration patterns, as well as renewed interest from foreign investors.
Hong Kong experienced the biggest one-year nominal drop of all the cities analyzed. The report notes that since around 2019 Hong Kong “has broadly stagnated as the lack of affordability, economic woes, and pandemic restrictions all took a major toll on demand.”
Prices can’t rise forever. According to UBS, most cities with high valuations, price corrections have already begun, or could be right around the corner.
Markets
The 50 Best One-Year Returns on the S&P 500 (1980-2022)
The highest one-year return among the top S&P 500 stocks from 1980 to 2022 was a staggering 2,620%. Which stocks top the ranks?
The Top S&P 500 Stocks by Annual Returns
The average annual return of the S&P 500 was 10% from 1980-2022, excluding dividends. Of course, there are some companies that deliver much higher returns in any given year.
In this graphic using data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, we explore the top S&P 500 stocks with the best single year returns over the last four decades.
Ranking the Top S&P 500 Stocks
In order to find the top gainers, S&P took the top 10 best-performing stocks each year and then narrowed that list down to the top 50 overall. They ranked the top S&P 500 stocks by price returns, meaning that no dividends or stock distributions were included.
The best gains were clustered in a few select years, including the 1999 dot-com boom, the 2003 stock market rally, and the 2009 recovery from the Global Financial Crisis. None of the biggest gains happened in 2021 or 2022.
Rank | Company | Sector | Return | Year |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Qualcomm | Information Technology | 2620% | 1999 |
2 | Tesla | Consumer Discretionary | 743% | 2020 |
3 | DSC Communications | Communication Services | 468% | 1992 |
4 | Coleco Industries | Consumer Discretionary | 435% | 1982 |
5 | Avaya | Information Technology | 428% | 2003 |
6 | Chrysler | Consumer Discretionary | 426% | 1982 |
7 | XL Capital (Axa XL) | Financials | 395% | 2009 |
8 | Tenet Healthcare | Healthcare | 369% | 2009 |
9 | Dynegy | Utilities | 361% | 2000 |
10 | Advanced Micro Devices | Information Technology | 348% | 2009 |
11 | Sprint | Communication Services | 343% | 1999 |
12 | Ford | Consumer Discretionary | 337% | 2009 |
13 | NEXTEL Communications | Communication Services | 336% | 1999 |
14 | LSI Logic | Information Technology | 319% | 1999 |
15 | NVIDIA | Information Technology | 308% | 2001 |
16 | Nortel Networks | Communication Services | 304% | 1999 |
17 | Etsy | Consumer Discretionary | 302% | 2020 |
18 | Genworth Financial | Financials | 301% | 2009 |
19 | Micron Technology | Information Technology | 300% | 2009 |
20 | NetFlix | Communication Services | 298% | 2013 |
21 | Oracle | Information Technology | 290% | 1999 |
22 | Western Digital | Information Technology | 286% | 2009 |
23 | Network Appliance (NetApp) | Information Technology | 270% | 1999 |
24 | Data General | Information Technology | 267% | 1991 |
25 | Yahoo | Communication Services | 265% | 1999 |
26 | Williams Companies | Energy | 264% | 2003 |
27 | Novell | Information Technology | 264% | 1991 |
28 | Dynegy | Utilities | 263% | 2003 |
29 | Sun Microsystems | Information Technology | 262% | 1999 |
30 | PMC-Sierra | Information Technology | 262% | 2003 |
31 | Advanced Micro Devices | Information Technology | 259% | 1991 |
32 | Dell | Information Technology | 248% | 1998 |
33 | Global Marine | Energy | 247% | 1980 |
34 | Micron Technology | Information Technology | 243% | 2013 |
35 | Best Buy | Consumer Discretionary | 237% | 2013 |
36 | Reebok | Consumer Discretionary | 234% | 2000 |
37 | Freeport-McMoRan | Materials | 229% | 2009 |
38 | Biomet (Zimmer Biomet) | Healthcare | 226% | 1991 |
39 | NVIDIA | Information Technology | 224% | 2016 |
40 | Gap | Consumer Discretionary | 223% | 1991 |
41 | NetFlix | Communication Services | 219% | 2010 |
42 | Fleetwood Enterprises (Fleetwood RV) | Consumer Discretionary | 217% | 1982 |
43 | National Semiconductor | Information Technology | 217% | 1999 |
44 | Dell | Information Technology | 216% | 1997 |
45 | Tandy Corp (RadioShack) | Information Technology | 216% | 1980 |
46 | Novell | Information Technology | 215% | 2003 |
47 | Corning | Information Technology | 215% | 2003 |
48 | CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) | Real Estate | 214% | 2009 |
49 | AES Corp | Utilities | 213% | 2003 |
50 | Expedia | Consumer Discretionary | 212% | 2009 |
Qualcomm was by far the top-performer in any one calendar year window. The company had key patents for Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology, which enabled fast wireless internet access and became the basis for 3G networks.
Its stock took off in 1999 as it shed less profitable business lines, resolved a patent dispute with competitor Ericsson, and joined the S&P 500 Index. At the time, CNN reported that one lucky investor who heard about Qualcomm from an investment-banker-turned-rabbi earned $17 million—roughly $30 million in today’s dollars.
The most recent stocks to make the rankings were both from 2020: well-known Tesla (#2) and lesser-known online marketplace Etsy (#17), which saw sales from independent creators surge during the early COVID-19 pandemic. The dollar value of items sold on Etsy more than doubled from $5.3 billion in 2019 to $10.3 billion in 2020, with mask sales accounting for 7% of the total.
Biggest Gainers in Each Sector
While information technology stocks made up nearly half of the list, there is representation from nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. No companies from the Industrials or Consumer Staples sectors made it into the ranks of the top S&P 500 stocks by annual returns.
Below, we show the stock with the best annual return for each sector.
Tesla was the top-performing Consumer Discretionary stock on the list. After meeting the requirement of four consecutive quarters of positive earnings, it joined the S&P 500 Index on December 21, 2020. The company’s performance was boosted by the announcement that it would be included in the S&P 500, along with strong performance in China, and general EV buzz as environmental regulations tightened worldwide.
In the realm of Communication Services, DSC Communications saw a sizable return in 1992. The telecommunications equipment company had contracts with major companies such as Bell and Motorola. Alcatel-Lucent (then Alcatel), a French producer of mobile phones, purchased DSC Communications in 1998.
Serial Success Stories
It’s impressive to make the list of the top S&P 500 stocks by calendar returns once, but there are seven companies that have done it twice.
Some stocks saw their repeated outperformance close together, with Dell making the ranks back-to-back in 1997 and 1998.
On the other hand, a select few have more staying power. Computing giant NVIDIA topped the charts in 2001 and triumphed again 15 years later in 2016. And this year might be another win, as the company has recently reached a $1 trillion market capitalization and has the highest year-to-date return in the S&P 500 as of July 6, 2023.
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