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Charted: The Rapid Decline of Global Birth Rates

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Multiple charts tracking the birth rates for the 49 most populous countries of the world, accounting for 85% of the world’s population.

Charted: The Rapid Decline in Global Birth Rates

In 1798, British economist Thomas Malthus proposed a groundbreaking theory now known as the “Malthusian Trap”—suggesting that human population growth is exponential and thus would outpace the linear growth of resources such as food supply.

He worried that this runaway population growth would become unsustainable, eventually relying on sudden shock events—wars, disasters, famines—to reset the population to more sustainable levels. And over the next 200 years, the world population skyrocketed from 1 billion to 8 billion people on the planet.

However, as it turns out, no such shock events were required to turn the tide of population growth. Instead, it’s been rapidly declining birth rates across the world that seem to be leading to an unthinkable outcome for Malthus: a gradually plateauing or even shrinking global population.

In the visualization above, Pablo Alvarez has visualized the crude birth rate for the 49 most populous countries of the world in 2021, using data from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 to examine changes since 1950.

Understanding Birth Rates vs Fertility Rates

Birth rates are commonly measured using a metric called the “crude birth rate” (CBR), which represents the number of live births per 1,000 individuals in a given population during a specific period—usually one year.

The measured decline in CBR is also a result of plummeting fertility rates across the globe. Not to be confused with birth rates, fertility rates measure how many children a woman will have over the course of her lifetime.

While a country’s birth rate is directly impacted by the fertility rate, it also takes into account other factors: population size, age structure of the population, access to contraception, cultural norms, government policies, and socioeconomic conditions.

Birth Rates of the Most Populated Countries

Here’s a snapshot of the CBR for the 49 most populous countries of the world at different years from 1950 to 2021.

Country195019902021% Change (1950-2021)
🇦🇫 Afghanistan48.8751.4235.84-27%
🇩🇿 Algeria51.0530.7621.52-58%
🇦🇴 Angola46.1551.3438.81-16%
🇦🇷 Argentina26.0021.9913.90-47%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh46.5234.9717.82-62%
🇧🇷 Brazil46.4324.8412.88-72%
🇨🇦 Canada26.8015.469.82-63%
🇨🇳 China41.0524.447.63-81%
🇨🇴 Colombia46.7427.3714.20-70%
🇨🇩 DRC46.0246.0142.05-9%
🇪🇬 Egypt54.2033.2122.56-58%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia49.4050.0532.38-34%
🇫🇷 France20.7713.3410.50-49%
🇩🇪 Germany16.2211.309.17-43%
🇬🇭 Ghana46.7640.3727.55-41%
🇮🇳 India43.8431.8216.42-63%
🇮🇩 Indonesia40.6425.5216.42-60%
🇮🇷 Iran50.1432.4613.70-73%
🇮🇶 Iraq45.7339.4127.37-40%
🇮🇹 Italy19.7010.016.93-65%
🇯🇵 Japan28.349.916.57-77%
🇰🇪 Kenya49.4743.5227.68-44%
🇲🇾 Malaysia44.3127.8915.24-66%
🇲🇽 Mexico49.3129.3014.86-70%
🇲🇦 Morocco51.0829.2317.55-66%
🇲🇿 Mozambique46.6646.3836.60-22%
🇲🇲 Myanmar45.5827.4817.10-62%
🇳🇵 Nepal47.0638.1120.40-57%
🇳🇬 Nigeria45.6143.7937.12-19%
🇵🇰 Pakistan43.7243.1527.52-37%
🇵🇪 Peru48.1630.9017.62-63%
🇵🇭 Philippines49.8433.2621.81-56%
🇵🇱 Poland30.8514.289.49-69%
🇷🇺 Russia28.8013.529.64-67%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia53.3434.4117.47-67%
🇿🇦 South Africa41.6531.1519.82-52%
🇰🇷 South Korea40.0315.695.58-86%
🇪🇸 Spain20.0110.307.55-62%
🇸🇩 Sudan47.7543.0933.60-30%
🇹🇿 Tanzania47.7543.7836.21-24%
🇹🇭 Thailand43.8419.739.00-79%
🇹🇷 Türkiye46.3925.8714.68-68%
🇺🇸 U.S.22.8116.7311.06-52%
🇺🇬 Uganda52.4251.3736.80-30%
🇬🇧 UK16.4413.8810.08-39%
🇺🇦 Ukraine22.9512.767.72-66%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan39.8533.9823.55-41%
🇻🇳 Vietnam38.8228.5115.01-61%
🇾🇪 Yemen52.5950.6430.54-42%

Every country on the list has seen a decline in birth rates in the last 70 years, with some declines more staggering than others. For example, China recorded 41 births per 1,000 people in 1950. By 2021, that number had fallen to just 7.6, a 81% decrease.

South Korea, the 29th most populous country in the world in 2021, saw an even larger 86% drop in its birth rate since 1950. In fact, almost every single country in this dataset has seen a double-digit fall in their birth rates over the past 70 years. Only the Democratic Republic of Congo has seen a single-digit percentage decline between 1950 and 2021.

Why are Global Birth Rates Falling?

For the 49 most populated countries in 2021, birth rates have halved on average in the last 70 years:

49 Most Populated Countries195019902021
Average Birth Rate40.9930.1819.50
Median Birth Rate45.7330.7617.10

But while the thought of a shrinking world population may seem worrisome, declining birth rates are generally thought of as a triumph of rapid socio-economic development.

As countries progress and living standards improve, there is a shift in societal norms and aspirations. For example, expanded education and career opportunities for women allow the pursuit of professional growth and personal goals, with some women choosing to delay starting a family or having smaller families.

Growing urbanization is another key driver of declining birth rates, characterized by smaller living spaces, increased focus on careers, and limited support networks. Another is the growing access to family planning services and contraceptives, particularly since the 1970s.

What are the Future Consequences?

The biggest consequence of declining birth rates—and one that is already being seen in many parts of the world—is a rapidly aging population.

With fewer children being born, the proportion of elderly individuals increases relative to the working-age population. This demographic imbalance poses challenges for social welfare systems, healthcare, and pension schemes.

Declining birth rates can also impact the labor market and economic productivity. A smaller workforce may lead to labor shortages, skill gaps, and reduced innovation. And shrinking populations reduce consumer demand, a cornerstone of the global economy, which may trigger a restructure of the current growth model of development.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Demographics

Visualizing the American Workforce as 100 People

Reimagining all 200 million of the American workforce as 100 people: where do they all work, what positions they hold, and what jobs they do?

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Reimagining the American workforce as 100 people and categorizing them by jobs, positions and sectors.

Visualizing the American Workforce as 100 People

In 2022, the U.S. population stood at 333 million. Of that, roughly 60% were employed in various jobs, positions, and sectors in the U.S. economy.

But where did all these people work? What jobs did they do and what positions did they hold? Where do most Americans do their nine-to-five?

Using data from the National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (2022) put out by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), we reimagine the employed American workforce as only 100 people, to find out answers.

Interestingly, the data contains a mix of information demarcations. Some are job-specific (type of work), some are based on position (like Management), and some are broken down by industry (Transport and Health).

The Most Common Jobs In the U.S.

By far, most of the American workforce (13 out of 100) are employed in Office & Administrative work. This includes a mind-boggling variety of jobs: receptionists, payroll clerks, secretaries, proof-readers, administrative assistants, and customer service representatives to name a few.

Notably, any sort of management role is absent from this, as well as any other job categories, since the BLS categorizes managers in their own class.

The industry which employs the second largest group of people is Health, accounting for 11 people from the 100. This category is a combination of two sectors listed in the original dataset (healthcare practitioners and healthcare support) and covers the entire industry: from physicians, surgeons, veterinarians, nurses, and therapists to technicians, assistants, orderlies, and home and personal care aides.

Here’s a quick look at all the major sectors most of America’s workforce actually works in.

RankJobsPeopleExamples
1.Office & Admin13Receptionists, Clerks, Customer service, Secretaries.
2.Health11Doctors, Nurses, Paramedics, Vets, Orderlies, Personal care aides.
3.Transport9Warehouse workers, Packagers, Pilots, Ambulance, Bus, Truck, Taxi drivers, Ship captains.
4.Sales9Sales representatives, Counter clerks.
5.Food8Food preparers & servers, Bartenders, Dishwashers, Hosts.
6.Management6Legislators, Chief executives, Directors, General & Operations managers.
7.Business & Finance6Accountants, Auditors, Financial analysts, Logisticians.
8.Manufacturing6Factory workers, Gas fitters, Machine operators, Cobblers, Tailors, Barbers.
9.Education6Teachers (all fields, all levels).
10.Construction & Extraction4Stone / brick / block / cement masons. Construction laborers. Roofers, Plumbers, Electricians, Mining workers.
11.Mechanics & Installation4Auto mechanic, Farm equipment mechanic, Home appliance mechanic, Locksmiths.
12.Data & Tech3Information analyst, Database architect, Software & Web
developers, Data scientists, Mathematicians, Computer support.
13.Custodial3Cleaning, Groundskeeping, Landscaping, Housekeeping.
14.Protection2Cops, Firefighters, Security guards, Lifeguards, Correctional officers.
15.Hospitality2Animal trainers / caretakers. Ushers / attendants. Makeup artists. Concierge. Exercise trainers.
16.Architecture & Engineering2All engineers and architects (excluding the information industry).
17.Community & Social Service2Social workers, Therapists (counsellors) & Religious work.
18.Arts, Media, & Sport1Fine artists, Designers, Actors, Athletes, Journalists, Writers, Authors, Musicians.
19.Science1All scientists (not engineers).
20.Legal1Lawyers, Judges, Paralegals, Mediators.
21.Farming, Fishing, & Forestry1Farmers, logging workers.
Total100

The third most common job is actually a tie between Transport—cargo moving workers, pilots, truck drivers—and Sales—retail and industry sales agents, counter clerks—with both sectors employing nine of the 100 people. In the Sales category, two of the nine people are cashiers.

Ranked fifth is Food, with eight people, ranging from private chefs to serving staff at fast food restaurants.

Another six all belong in some kind of Management role (across industry, and including legislators) with two of those six being “top level executives” like a CEO, a general manager, a mayor, or university president. Management shares its spot with Business & Finance, Manufacturing, and Education, all at six each.

The following jobs or industries also employ the same number of people:

  • Construction & Extraction along with Mechanics & Installation, at four each.
  • Data & Tech, with Custodial jobs, with three each.
  • Protection, Hospitality, Architecture & Engineering, and Social work, all at two each.
  • Artists & Athletes, Scientists, Legal, and Farming, Fishing & Forestry are all one each.

Quirks of the Job Data

From the numbers, some fascinating nuances of the American workforce are revealed. For example, there are more cashiers (2) in the economy than artists, writers, designers & athletes (1). There are the same number of customer service representatives as the entire Scientific and Legal fields put together (2).

But perhaps the most interesting quirk comes from how few people are employed in the Farming, Fishing & Forestry industry, a critical primary sector. In raw data, the BLS estimates only slightly more than 450,000 farm, fish & forestry workers.

Importantly, it’s worth noting the BLS only collects data from “nonfarm” establishments, explaining the low estimate for their category, which is almost one-sixth of what the USDA estimates. Please see the data note at the end of this article for a full explanation.

Which Jobs Have the Highest Wages in the U.S.?

Meanwhile, the top 20 highest paid jobs (by annual average wages) all belong to doctors (usually specialists or surgeons), with two exceptions: CEOs and athletes.

The lowest-paid jobs are a mix of entertainers, and service and retail staff.

As a broader category, however, Management makes the most money, followed by Legal and then Tech. Workers in Food, Health Support, and Custodial jobs have the lowest wages.

RankJobsAnnual Average Wages
1.Management$131,200
2.Legal$124,540
3.Data & Tech$108,130
4.Health (Practitioners)$96,770
5.Architecture & Engineering$94,670
6.Business & Finance$86,080
7.Scientists$83,640
8.Arts, Media, Sports$76,500
9.Education$63,240
10.Construction & Extraction$58,400
11.Community & Social Service$55,760
12.Mechanics & Installation$55,680
13.Protection$54,010
14.Sales$50,370
15.Office & Admin$45,550
16.Manufacturing$45,370
17.Transport$43,930
18.Farming, Fishing, & Forestry$37,870
20.Hospitality$36,210
19.Custodial$35,900
21.Health (Support)$35,560
22.Food$32,130

Analyzing the data throws up a few correlations between number of employees and wages. The top three sectors with the most jobs (Admin, Transport, and Sales) are in the bottom 10 categories when it comes to pay.

On the other hand, three sectors in the bottom 10 of employment numbers, (Data & Tech, Architecture & Engineering, and Legal) are in the top five highest paid sectors.

The Health sector sees a big divide in pay between practitioners (doctors, nurses, therapists) ranked 5th and support staff (assistants, aides, & orderlies), ranked 21st, or second-to-last.

How is the American Workforce Changing?

Over the last five years, the American workforce has not stayed static. Of the listed 22 groups, 13 saw growth in employment numbers, nine saw a decrease, and one stayed flat since 2018.

A bar chart of the biggest increases and decreases in employment per sector in the American Workforce.

The top gainer by far is Health Support (medical assistants, care aides, orderlies, etc.) which grew by 65%. Looking at the timeline of growth does not paint a steady picture: employment jumped between 2018 and 2019, briefly fell in 2020, and has since risen again in 2021-2022.

Another top gainer is Transport, rising from the 4th to 3rd biggest employer, beating out Sales in 2022. Business & Finance and Management have also seen steady increases since 2018.

On the other hand Hospitality saw a staggering 48% drop in numbers, not all together surprising given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the rise of tech companies like Airbnb.

Meanwhile, Office & Admin work saw a 15% loss in employees, even though this category is still the biggest employer in the country by a significant margin. Although jobs in this group saw steady declines from 2018-2021, it registered a slight uptick in workers between 2021 and 2022.

Here’s a full list of top-level sectors and how they changed.

Jobs20182022% Change (2018-2022)
Health Support4,117,450 6,792,310 +65%
Transport10,244,260 13,560,460 +32%
Management7,616,650 9,860,740 +29%
Business & Finance7,721,300 9,677,720 +25%
Data & Tech4,384,300 5,003,910 +14%
Sciences1,171,910 1,314,360 +12%
Legal1,127,900 1,216,600 +7%
Community & Social Service2,171,820 2,313,620 +7%
Arts, Media, & Sports1,951,170 2,063,380 +6%
Health Practioners8,646,730 9,043,070 +5%
Mechanics and Installataion5,628,880 5,823,400 +3%
Construction & Extraction5,962,640 6,075,520 +2%
Protection3,437,410 3,437,610 0%
Custodial4,421,980 4,316,350 -2%
Architecture & Engineering2,556,220 2,481,170 -3%
Education8,779,780 8,496,780 -3%
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry480,130 461,750 -4%
Manufacturing9,115,530 8,738,980 -4%
Food13,374,620 12,514,620 -6%
Sales and Related14,542,290 13,183,250 -9%
Office & Admin21,828,990 18,674,770 -15%
Hospitality5,451,330 2,835,650 -48%

Looking ahead, questions about the future of the American workforce loom large, especially in the wake of the AI revolution that has swept imaginations, and quite possibly, soon the economy. People who hold administrative jobs—the largest category—are most vulnerable since many office tasks can be automated with increasingly sophisticated AI tools.

Will AI be as dominating a factor as the Industrial Revolution on the global economy? Will it cause as big a shift as the offshoring of manufacturing from the U.S.?

Or will AI blend seamlessly into the current make-up of the American workforce, merely enhancing productivity and profit?

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Data note 1: Categories from the original data were modified slightly for better readability. Some have been renamed all together. They are:

  • Production, listed as Manufacturing.
  • Installation, maintenance and repair, listed as Mechanics & Installation.
  • Computer and mathematical operations, listed as Data & tech.
  • Building and groundskeeping, listed as Custodial.
  • Personal care and service, listed as Hospitality.
  • Life, physical, social science, listed as Science.

Data note #2: OES data is a combination of surveys conducted by the BLS and estimates are produced for over 800 jobs in the country. The survey collects occupational employment and wage data from establishments in nonfarm industries only and doesn’t survey the following: Crop production, Animal production, Timber tract operations, Forest nurseries & gathering of forest products, Fishing, hunting, and trapping, Forestry support activities, and Private households.

The survey also does not cover the self-employed, owners and partners in unincorporated firms, household workers, or unpaid family workers.

Data note #3: On the calculating end, due to rounding of each category and the 100 workers total, some categories can have slightly more or less workers, depending on the method use. In 2022, both Management and Business & Finance employment can be rounded up to 7 workers each. On the other hand, Farm, Fishing and Forestry can be rounded down to 0. Our rounding was done to provide as wide a scope of the economy as possible, while also maintaining accuracy.

Finally, percentage change in employment per sector was not adjusted for general population or employment growth from 2018 to 2022.

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